Previewing Korea’s 2026 World Cup Draw

Pots

Korea is in Pot 2, along with Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran, Ecuador, Austria, and Australia.

Pot 1 has the three host nations of Canada, Mexico, and the US, along with Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany.

Pot 3 has: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa.

Pot 4 has: Jordan, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand, and six to be determined teams. Of the six TBD teams, four will come from the UEFA playoffs and two from the FIFA playoffs. 

• UEFA playoff teams: Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, Albania, Turkiye, Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo, Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, and Ireland.
• FIFA playoff teams: Bolivia, Congo, Iraq, Jamaica, New Caledonia, and Suriname.

The Group Draw

Next year’s World Cup is the first of the expanded 48 nation format. Similar to prior World Cups, the draw will go pot-by-pot to fill out each group – of which there are now 12 rather than 8. So, all Pot 1 teams will be drawn into their groups first, and then Pot 2, Pot 3, and finally Pot 4. As in previous World Cups, each group can only have one team from each respective confederation with the exception of UEFA (16 teams). In UEFA’s case, each group will have at least one UEFA nation, but no more than two.

Reminder, even though the UEFA and FIFA playoffs are not until early-mid 2026, the draw itself will be done on December 5, 2025 (5PM GMT, 12PM EST). 

Looking at Korea’s Possibilities

In this section, I will attempt to do some math/probabilities. It will probably be flawed, but just bear with me (or feel free to share corrections in the comments).

Pot 1 opponents

Given there are no AFC nations in Pot 1, Korea can be drawn into any group. 

Pot 3 opponents

The three opponents we cannot be drawn against in Pot 3 are Uzbekistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. That leaves:

• Norway
• Panama
• Egypt
• Algeria
• Scotland
• Paraguay
• Tunisia
• Cote d’Ivoire
• South Africa

Pot 4 opponents

Again, given we are AFC, the only teams we could not face in Pot 4 are Jordan and Iraq (assuming they make it through the playoff). 

• Cabo Verde
• Ghana
• Curacao
• Haiti
• New Zealand
• Italy/Northern Ireland/Wales/Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Ukraine/Sweden/Poland/Albania
• Turkiye/Romania/Slovakia/Kosovo
• Denmark/North Macedonia/Czechia/Ireland
• North Caledonia/Jamaica/Congo
• Bolivia/Suriname

Scenario 1 – Pot 1 Concacaf opponent

Getting one of Canada, the US, or Mexico from Pot 1 is probably Korea’s best case scenario. This is because it gives us a Pot 1 opponent that we will at least think we have a decent shot against and likely give us a weaker European opponent from Pot 3 and/or 4. Granted there are still tough opponents in those Pots from Europe, and we’ve underestimated (at least at the surface/media level) our Pot 3 and 4 opposition in the past as well. But, regardless, you’d fancy our chances of pulling points from all three opponents in this scenario. 

Scenario 2 – Pot 1 CONMEBOL opponent

Getting one of Argentina or Brazil is not really a good thing. It’s probably not realistic to expect to get anything from that match (especially given our recent matches with Brazil). That still likely gives us a weaker European team in Pot 3 and/or 4 though. 

Scenario 3 – Pot 1 UEFA opponent

This is the most likely scenario given 7 of the 12 Pot 1 teams are from UEFA. Expecting to get points from any of the UEFA teams will be a big ask. You could make a case that getting a Pot 1 UEFA opponent could lead to a non-UEFA opponent from Pot 3 and/or 4 – which in theory could result in a weaker CAF/Concacaf/OFC team, but there are a lot of different scenarios making that a difficult prediction.

“Best” Case Scenario

If going off the rankings (which are flawed I know), the best case scenario is to get Canada (27) (sorry Tim) from Pot 1, South Africa (61) from Pot 3, and an OFC (New Zealand, North Caledonia) from Pot 4. 

“Worst” Case Scenario

Using the rankings, the worst case would be to get Spain (1) from Pot 1, Panama (30) from Pot 3, and Italy (12) from Pot 4. Realistically though, you could swap Spain for any non-Concacaf team from Pot 1 and have a similar bad situation. Ignoring the rankings, getting Brazil (5) or Argentina (2) could be worse as it would open the possibility of getting Norway (29) from Pot 3 who scares me more than Panama does. So, my worst case is probably Brazil/Argentina, Norway, Italy.

“Likely” Scenario

Ignoring the specific teams, let’s consider the likely confederations we can draw (here’s where my likely flawed mental math comes in). Given the larger number of UEFA Pot 1 teams, it is most likely we draw a Pot 1 UEFA side. That leaves one more UEFA, CAF, Concacaf, CONMEBOL, and OFC for Pots 3 and 4. 

In Pot 3, removing the three AFC sides, that leaves 5 CAF nations, 2 UEFA nations, 1 Concacaf nation, and 1 CONMEBOL nation. Considering there are two CAF nations in Pot 2, that leaves 10 groups that can get one of the 5 Pot 3 CAF nations, so it seems there is a decent probability of us getting one of those five. 

If we consider Pot 1 UEFA, Pot 2 AFC (us), and Pot 3 CAF, then that leaves from Pot 4, UEFA, CONMEBOL, Concacaf, and OFC. There are 4 UEFA teams, 1 potential CONMEBOL team (playoff), 2-3 Concacaf teams, and 1-2 OFC teams. My brain starts to break when considering how these potential drawings could happen, so let’s just say given the higher number, UEFA or Concacaf seems likely here. 

So, I can see a UEFA-KOR-CAF-UEFA or UEFA-KOR-CAF-Concacaf/Concacaf-KOR-CAF-UEFA draw happening. Of course, it’s the World Cup draw, there always seems to be something that makes people go “wow, how’d that draw happen?”. So, it could be something completely different as well. 

Considering (way to early) What May Happen

Regardless, unless some version of the worst case draw happens, Korea should expect to have a good shot at progressing out of the initial group stage. Remember, since we are up to 48 teams the top 2 teams from each group automatically advance to the Round of 32 and then the top 8 third-placed teams also advance (rankings for 3rd placed teams use points, goal difference, goals scored for placement/tie breakers). That extra cushion plus the additional ‘weaker’ teams that dilutes each overall groups’ strength should give Korea a decent shot. 

We’ll see in just over a week’s time what happens though!