Fortune handed us one of the seemingly easier groups in the tournament on paper. We play the UEFA team first on 6/11, Mexico second on 6/18, and RSA last 6/24.
While most Korean fans right now seem to be happy or relieved about this draw, I’m a bit more hesitant. The draw itself was great. We got a good matchup from pot 1, a good if not the best matchup from pot 3, and one of the better UEFA qualifier sets. And we avoided our likely worst-case scenario of Brazil or Argentina and a guaranteed UEFA side (or two) from pots 3 and 4. We really can’t complain about how this went – in fact, it’s arguably our most favorable draw of our 12 World Cups so far. Getting out of this group seems very doable. We are more than capable of competing against Mexico, RSA, and whichever UEFA team makes it out of their qualifiers… on paper. We no doubt have the star power to get out of this group… on paper.
Then reality sets in: we’re playing Mexico in Mexico – winnable sure, but a very daunting endeavor. All our matches will be in Guadalajara or Monterrey as things stand; had we been drawn into Los Angeles, NY/NJ, or Atlanta we’d essentially be the home team (wonder if FIFA will change our first or second match venue from Mexico to LA or Texas to maximize revenue; the stadiums/locations get finalized tomorrow 12/6). Respect to our other opponents as well: South Africa was probably our most ideal matchup from pot 3, but they topped a group that included Nigeria and seem like a well-coached team (unlike us) playing modern, European-style possession-based football with most of their squad coming from just two domestic clubs. And whichever team makes it out of UEFA won’t be easy either.
Group A, to me, is a group where each team is roughly near each other’s level. Anyone can beat anyone. Without a clear #1 to mop up 9 points and without a clear “whipping boy” 승점자판기 team, getting out of the group can get difficult and unpredictable. At least in recent history, the third place team has always gotten 3 or 4 points; the average points won by the third placed team was 3.8 in 2022, 3.25 in 2018, 3.15 in 2014, and 3.62 in 2010 (credit to 페노 from 새벽의 축구 전문가 on Youtube). Hence, I suspect that in this new format where the top 3rd placed teams can also advance, landing the team from which everyone can get 3 points and rack up goal differential will turn out to be very advantageous for the other three at least in terms of RO32 qualification. With no disrespect to any team, some examples could be Groups C, E, G, H and I. For us, you can make one of two arguments: 1) we don’t have a team like that, or 2) we do (South Africa). I don’t have enough information to make a call on that one.
But it doesn’t matter because most concerning of all, the team is still a work in progress, and nowhere near the list of “well-coached teams” (I know I’m getting away from the draw here but bear with me). Despite world class names like Son Heung Min, Lee Kang In, and Kim Min Jae (pretty sure no other team can match these guys player for player outside of Denmark)… we have no identity. We’re unorganized. We randomly lose to Asian minnows all the time. We rely on moments of individual brilliance, usually from the above three guys, to carry the team. Despite recent wins against USA, Paraguay, Ghana, and Bolivia and a very exciting back and forth 2-2 draw against Mexico, most of us will have felt a bit disappointed by the way we played and how the same mistakes repeat themselves over and over again. Most recently, the Ghana coach Otto Addo even pointed out that his side only lost because they were missing their key players, couldn’t finish, and that Japan was a level above us – the last bit being just about the most damning thing you could say to Korean fans. Ancelotti in October also said that while Hong Myung Bo didn’t even try to adapt his gameplan, Japan did (and in doing so pulled off the upset that we couldn’t). Our island rivals are well coached and well drilled, and on their day they can pull off a surprise win against … pretty much any team in the world. They don’t have world class individuals but they’ve been fine without any – they have a cohesive unit and philosophy. We do not… yet. But hey they got one of the hardest groups (despite having one dominant team, Japan Tunisia and UKR/SWE/POL/ALB are all capable of beating each other) and they’re much weaker matchup-wise to physically strong teams like Tunisia, the Netherlands, Iran, and Costa Rica vs technical/possession based teams who defend with a high line like Spain or Germany… so there’s that.
On one hand, every team in our group could very well beat us. There is a realistic scenario where we only get 0 or 1 point and crash out despite the expansion. We lose to teams like Jordan from time to time. And remember 2014, the last time Hong Myung Bo was in charge? We absolutely flopped against “beatable” opponents in Algeria and Russia. Not making the top 32 of 48 would be very damning for our manager’s legacy – the man who was once the national team captain and national hero, but is now largely responsible, alongside an ever-so corrupt and short-sighted KFA, for an alarming trend of gradually diminishing attendance at NT matches ever since his controversial appointment.
But with some luck and proper preparation, we very well may witness our best group stage performance in history. I am encouraged by the fact that we play the UEFA side first – every World Cup since 2010, most of our points have come from a UEFA team: 3/4 from Greece, 1/1 from Russia, 3/3 from Germany, and 3/4 from Portugal. With hosts Mexico right around the corner, the first match is a must win to secure advancement. And if we wanted to get ambitious and set our sights on topping our group, this is a pretty ideal draw for that, although given that the winner of Group A plays the third place team from C/E/F/H/I, while the runner up from Group A plays the runner up from Group B (Canada Switzerland UEFA A Qatar), I’m not sure which is better. Either way, there is a realistic scenario where we could pull off 6, 7, or maybe even 9 points. It is definitely possible despite our managerial woes,, our fate is in our hands.
If we solve our issues and Hong Myung Bo fixes our shape/organization/tactics and decides on an effective best XI and formation, then we can thrive and take advantage of the most favorable World Cup draw we’ve ever seen in recent memory. But if not – which is the way things seem to be going – there’s a chance we crash out and face disappointment harsher than 2014. This draw result allows us to control our own destiny. I believe in our team and to a lesser extent our manager, but the last few years will have left some of us more pessimistic than hopeful.
Agree that HMB not the greatest coach, but 1. Definite improvement over Klinsmann and 2. appears to have a learning curve from 2014 WC debacle.
They’ll probably do just enuf to advance past group stage and then vs Canada maybe can go slightly further until we hit the Brazil or another roadblock to send Korea packing. That’s my cautiously optimistic view
Definitely improved since Klinsmann, but a step backward since Bento at least in certain asepcts. I can’t believe we’re in a state where we’d even entertain missing that guy. Just enough to advance past group stage but not doing it very convincingly sounds about right!
I don’t know what draw people have watched, this group is much easier than several of the others! Does anyone realize how much worse the US, Mexico and Canada are as pot 1 teams than the rest of the actual REAL 1 SEED’S? I’m sure people who read this understand Korea being a pot 2 team is not accurate and reflective of what the squad really is, they are in reality a pot 3 team in a 48 team competition, so even have an advantage in seeding as well as the teams they got. Really feel the KMNT are very lucky they got in this cream puff group. I’ve watched Mexico a ton over the years living in Canada, although they have improved defensively of late, they often have trouble scoring in many of their matches, and don’t look all that fluid. South Africa did win out over Nigeria in qualifying, but Nigeria as evident in the CAF playoff bracket played last month, are horribly I mean horribly managed by an abject manager IMO. Also South Africa is a pot 4 team, I’d be more worried about Ghana than them. And S.Korea only has 1 european team in their group, not 2. And that playoff team is potentially Denmark, who is not as good as Italy or Turkiye. I don’t think Korea are better than then Danes, don’t get me wrong, but they are a weaker tier 2 UEFA squad.
What I do agree with Jinseok however is Korea is perfectly capable of losing to all 3 of these teams. Because Korea historically have had very little success in maintaining a clean sheet in any match the past 10 World Cup since 1986. Aside from 2002, which is a major aberration that has been a complete outlier and doesn’t reflect the progression of Korean football, it was a total fluke more or less. Also Korea has been managed by a Korean gaffter in 22 matches across those 9 or 10 WC’s in a row, and have won 2 matches. 2 matches won out of 22 by a Korean gaffer, you want to know what that is? That’s like managing Derby County back in 2007-08 or Southampton last year in the Prem! It’s just awful, abject and a nothing burger.
Also agree with Jinseok this is a very doable group to get out of, nobody outside of Korea thinks this group is difficult in any way, shape or form, it’s kind of a joke group if I’m being fair. Korea just needs to be one of the best 32 teams, if they can’t do that with this joke group, they will have hit a new low for sure. I will be a bit positive and won’t predict they’ll lose every match and reach this possible new low, I say they win against South Africa but don’t win another match, and are quickly eliminated in the R32 (they can also draw Mexico potentially, playing in the Azteca is not a big deal for teams anymore, it used to be).
What Korea drew in their group is a very low end pot 2 team to higher end pot 3 team (Mexico), a real pot 4 team (South Africa) and a UEFA playoff team that might be Denmark (high end pot 3 team) or a low end pot 3 team (someone else other than Denmark). That is a lot of fortune for Korea, so at the very least, win one damn game. Not expecting anything more because of some of the things I agree with Jinseok above.
Excellent points Glen and I’d agree with much of what you have to say too. One thing I’ll point out though is that yeah all the host groups look easy on paper, but the issue with these kinds of groups is that everyone is capable of beating everyone else. There isn’t a team that’ll almost certainly get you 3 points (which is impatient for the third place ranking). I think our situation is a bit more difficult than most people are saying online precisely because anyone can beat anyone and in the scenarios it often comes down to the better organized, better coached, in better condition team the day of the match. And right there is what I’m not confident about..
Not the worst draw.
If we draw Mexico, win South Africa and win/draw whichever European team we get, that would be great.
But who knows, all we can do is wait and see.
In 2014 we drew 1-1 to Russia, got wrecked 2-4 to Algeria and lost to a 10-man Belgian B team.
And then 2018… that looked harder than the 2014 group… and you have Korea beating Germany lol. Had Mexico done their part, we would’ve advanced lol.
2022… we finally made it to the Round of 16 again!
Also, we sure met Mexico a lot at the World Cups.
Thanks for the post Jinseok, great to see you posting!
2022 looked like the hardest group on paper with Portugal, Uruguay, and Ghana. I still vividly remember feeling defeated after that draw, and messaging my friends and family “we’re screwed” after seeing the lineup, but Bento’s Uruguay match actually turned out to be one of our best World Cup matches in recent memory. I’m telling you the manager is so unbelievably important to how the team performs… night and day difference between end-of-term Bento and Klinsmann right? And thank you! I am constantly following the scene and watching games at home, but difficult to post regularly with work constraints
Been ages since I joined in on these conversations here. Glad to see everyone soldiering on here through the ups and downs. Favorable draw yesterday or not, licking my wounds a bit currently. Won one of the early ticket lotteries in October, and purchased four tickets to each of the Korea group-stage matches with my brother, betting on the decent probability that we would…yea. Avoid being drawn into Group A and having to travel to Mexico for every single match during a “home” World Cup. Would have died for an East Coast draw (Group C, Group I, Group L), and otherwise been more than content with a West Coast draw (Group B, Group D, Group G, Group J) or a non-Mexico “central zone” draw (Group F, Group J, Group K). Just needed to avoid the one disaster scenario that was Group A. Alas. Curious what you think fan turnout will be for these matches. Suspect they will be crickets. In the event we cannot attend, also suspect will not have any market for resale. Therefore, this is turning out to be a disaster draw for me, and for any other Korea fan who went in on tickets.
great to hear from you! I remember you from the meet the community post back in 2014 (that seems like forever ago huh) and our various conversations in the comments. Very sorry to hear about your lottery situation, and yes it is extremely unfortunate we are playing every game in Mexico, the country with by far the least # of Koreans. Hopefully you can sell those and find something in Mexico in the secondary market. TBH I think the fact that there won’t be many Koreans in Mexico actually works in our favor when it comes to getting tickets. Getting tickets to Mexico vs Korea might be near impossible (in my experience, Mexicans have a very favorable view of Korea and that’s the game they’ll all want to go to) but the others should be doable.. I hope
I think you’re absolutely spot on, Jinseok. First reaction was, this is a good draw. Then I realized it’s Mexico IN Mexico. Then I read up and realized that South Africa is one of the better team in Africa CURRENTLY even if not historically, and any of the UEFA team won’t be slouches, especially Denmark or Ireland, even if I think, interestingly enough, that the Euro team will be the weakest in the group.
Not entirely sure if that Euro team will indeed be the weakest (I don’t know enough about those four sides) but historically, we’ve always gotten the most points off of an UEFA opponent – 2010 with Greece, 2014 with Russia (man that was a sad year), 2018 with Germany, and 2022 with Portugal.
Korea doesn’t even have to play Mexico in the Azteca, and none of the 3 group games for the KMNT are in Mexico City, which is wild and unbelievably fortunate. Korea’s games are in Guadalajara and Monterey, again they are not even playing Mexico in the Azteca. All their games are at night, many teams in the World Cup have to play at least 1 day game, France has to play all 3 of their matches outdoors in the afternoon which to me is complete BS and unfair for Les Bleus. If Korea cannot take advantage of all this insane good luck they have received with a crap group, and not having to play at Mexico City altitude and no day game kickoffs, I don’t know what to tell anyone. They should be banned from playing in 2030? I mean the KMNT are no good anyways, but this amount of luck they have already received is almost absurd.
Absolutely agree! Good draw but the issue is our coaching and team organization. It just isn’t there yet. And hahaha you are spot on about Japan. They’re a team that’s so consistent that everyone knows their weaknesses. They may play better than us right now, but time and time again they crumble against big tall physical attackers and defenders alike. They got bodied by Iraq’s Hussein and Iran’s Azmoun – good luck against Wout Weghorst or the entire Dutch and Tunisian backlines!
Korea is great!!!! nothing is impossible! Time change and also history can be made. Not big time we’ll know can win ?we can do a better Korea
After learning the location of the group stage matches, and Korea getting further pre-tournament luck on top of the advantages already received through the draw, right now the KMNT:
1) Are in a group with only 1 UEFA team
2) Have all kick off times in their group matches at night, not early evening, night time.
3) Do not have to play in the Azteca.
4) Do not have to play Mexico in the Azteca in the day, which would have been a guaranteed multiple goal loss.
5) UEFA team is not a Pot 2 or Pot 3 team, it’s a playoff team from bracket D, which is very weak to me (Bad Sweden/Okay-ish Denmark/Ireland/N.Macedonia). I mean from that group, is the only European team you have to play??
6) The Pot 1 team is the 2nd worst of the 12. Only Canada is worse than Mexico.
7) Most Pot 2 teams would have killed and drank blood to get drawn in with this group.
Do I think the KMNT are good, no they are not and they’re also not a Pot 2 team, this is highly inflated only because it’s a 48 team WC, they’d still be like a Pot 4 ish team in a normal 32 team tournament. But they have a lot of advantages most other teams do not have walking into this World Cup, so they better at least win a game for god’s sake. I said all my things above about how Korean managers are producing the same level as the Derby County Manager in the Prem 2007-08 (2 wins in 22 matches lol), but even Manager Hong should be able to win 1 game here. I don’t expect more than a win as they won’t last past the R32, but you gotta win at least 1 game with all this good fortune before the tournament starts.