South Korea vs Côte d’Ivoire/Ivory Coast and Austria Preview

As a follow-up to the callups post re: Korea’s March friendlies, we discuss what we should be looking out for in these upcoming friendlies. In the previous post we listed the following:

1. Who starts up top (our best player or our most in form player)?
2. Do we go 3 ATB or HMB’s usual 4-2-3-1?
3. How do we set up the central midfield? Who can replace HIB and who can play alongside him?
4. In attacking midfield, who makes the squad and who makes the starting XI? Due to depth, there will inevitably be cuts.
5. Can we perform against near-peer opponents?

Let’s go over these talking points one by one. Not that this matters AT ALL since our group stage opponents and their team of actual professionals analyze games and know our team better than I do, but I will be a bit cautious in revealing too much about the state of the team and HMB’s ideas, even if everything I know draws from public information and I’m just a random dude from California who has been doing this as a hobby. Anyway…

Who starts up top and do we go 4-2-3-1 or 3 ATB?

The first two questions are a bit related. Let’s start with the striker position: we know (and so do our opponents) that we will have three forwards available to choose from: Son Heung Min, Oh Hyeon Gyu, and Cho Gue Sung. The last several friendlies we have always used Son at the top; but Son can also be used out left, albeit less effectively, and more recently, he seems to be in a run of poor form. On the other hand, Oh Hyeon Gyu is averaging over 0.5 goals per game, and Cho is also in good form in Denmark. All three offer something different, and they give us so many options up front. In recent friendlies, we have usually started with SHM and subbed in OHG. I’d assume this is our default, but perhaps individual form or strategies tailored to the specific opponent will also inform who starts assuming we go one CF up top.

Then there’s the option to play SHM alongside OHG, on the left side in either a 4-2-3-1 or perhaps even better, a 3 ATB with Jens as a wingback so Son isn’t burdened with defensive coverage. But Jens also thrives in space as SHM does, and I wonder if playing Jens LWB and SHM LCF at the same time is a good idea. Also, it guarantees that someone important (pick one of Lee Jae Sung, Lee Kang In, Bae Jun Ho, Hwang Hee Chan etc) will be benched.

So related to question of which combination of SHM, OHG, and CGS starts is do we go for 4-2-3-1 or 5-2-3. In practice, there’s very little difference because even in a 4-2-3-1, HMB really likes to have one DM drop in to the CB line. but there are major personnel shifts – an extra CB comes in, one of the four attackers drops out. Our attackers are our best asset, yet it seems like we’ve played our better games in a 3 ATB formation because the team feels more balanced and because Kim Min Jae becomes a little bit freer to do what he does best. I’m really not sure what the answer here is again, but what Hong Myung Bo decides to go for in these two games will be very interesting to watch. If I had to guess, assuming Jens is not healthy to start tomorrow, he’ll test out a 4-2-3-1 vs Ivory Coast and a 5-2-3 against Austria.

I’ve also given some thought as to whether we want Kim Min Jae as a sweeper as he was against the USA, or as a LCB pushing higher up and being that aggressive coming-off-the-line CB that he favors. If the latter, who goes center? I’d guess Lee Han Beom is the RCB and either Park Jin Seob or Cho Yu Min go sweeper, but again not sure what’s optimal.

How do we setup the central midfield?

In my opinion this is our biggest headache. Anyone who watches our games should be able to tell we will almost certainly go with 2 CMs in a 4-2-3-1 or 5-2-3, and it seems pretty clear Hwang In Beom is a lock to start, and HMB seems to favor a certain player as his direct replacement. But who plays alongside him? Could Jens do it? Could Park Jin Seob, recently playing more of a CM role than a DM/CB role for his new club in China, do it? Could Paik Seung Ho finally show some of his club form for country? Or will Kwon Hyeok Kyu be the DM we’ve always wanted? There’s so many question marks here that honestly I can’t predict what the CM lineup will look like when June comes around. My hunch is that either PSH or PJS would be favored, but this could change at any time, with form, with injuries, or with any other weird circumstances that gets thrown our way. Someone like Ki Sung Yong or perhaps prime Park Joo Ho would be really nice to have on the pitch right now.

Attacking midfield:

There are so many footballers who won’t be making the cut even though they probably do deserve to play for the KNT. The attacking midfield/winger space is by far the most crowded, and guys like Lee Dong Gyeong, Kim Min Su (doing well in the Segunda Division but probably not ready for a senior cap just yet), Yang Min Hyeok, Jeong Sang Bin, etc. weren’t called up this time and are in danger of not making it to the World Cup. In CB, Kim Ji Soo didn’t make the squad this round (he was to be fair injured until very recently), and the usual second choice LB in Lee Myung Jae is currently injured but might not even make the squad with the revelation of Jens Castrop as LWB. The final squad will be announced late May I believe and we will update the Tavern the moment it is up along with any tidbits from the subsequent press conference.

Can we perform against near peer opponents?

Ivory Coast and Austria seem to be good near-peer opponents for our March friendlies. I hate to be generalizing like this but I’d assume Austria is a rehearsal against Denmark or Czechia (Denmark looks really scary not gonna lie), while Ivory Coast is our rehearsal against Mexico and South Africa (a CAF team with solid players and fast skillful wingers, which at first glance seems like a major strength for both Mexico and SA). Meanwhile our neighbors have gone for full UEFA sparring partners in England and Scotland (in preparation for UEFA path B and the Netherlands). Wonder if the Netherlands or the winner of UEFA path B will try to schedule friendlies with us.

We’ve had some good victories recently against relatively near peer opponents, but some of those felt like we won through luck (Ghana comes to mind) and Brazil was an absolute disaster. So now would be a really nice time for HMB to get his act together. With only a few months and a handful of friendly games left, I don’t think any team will be seeing meaningful upgrades to their squads going forward; but we have some organizational issues that if fixed, can hopefully make a big difference before June.