South Korea vs Côte d’Ivoire/Ivory Coast and Austria Preview [UPDATE: 4-0 Loss to Ivory Coast]

[Update: please see our update post for more thoughts on the complete and utter failure against Ivory Coast and a more in-depth preview vs Austria]

As a follow-up to the callups post re: Korea’s March friendlies, we discuss what we should be looking out for in these upcoming friendlies. In the previous post we listed the following:

1. Who starts up top (our best player or our most in form player)?
2. Do we go 3 ATB or HMB’s usual 4-2-3-1?
3. How do we set up the central midfield? Who can replace HIB and who can play alongside him?
4. In attacking midfield, who makes the squad and who makes the starting XI? Due to depth, there will inevitably be cuts.
5. Can we perform against near-peer opponents?

Let’s go over these talking points one by one. Not that this matters AT ALL since our group stage opponents and their team of actual professionals analyze games and know our team better than I do, but I will be a bit cautious in revealing too much about the state of the team and HMB’s ideas, even if everything I know draws from public information and I’m just a random dude from California who has been doing this as a hobby. Anyway…

Who starts up top and do we go 4-2-3-1 or 3 ATB?

The first two questions are a bit related. Let’s start with the striker position: we know (and so do our opponents) that we will have three forwards available to choose from: Son Heung Min, Oh Hyeon Gyu, and Cho Gue Sung. The last several friendlies we have always used Son at the top; but Son can also be used out left, albeit less effectively, and more recently, he seems to be in a run of poor form. On the other hand, Oh Hyeon Gyu is averaging over 0.5 goals per game, and Cho is also in good form in Denmark. All three offer something different, and they give us so many options up front. In recent friendlies, we have usually started with SHM and subbed in OHG. I’d assume this is our default, but perhaps individual form or strategies tailored to the specific opponent will also inform who starts assuming we go one CF up top.

Then there’s the option to play SHM alongside OHG, on the left side in either a 4-2-3-1 or perhaps even better, a 3 ATB with Jens as a wingback so Son isn’t burdened with defensive coverage. But Jens also thrives in space as SHM does, and I wonder if playing Jens LWB and SHM LCF at the same time is a good idea. Also, it guarantees that someone important (pick one of Lee Jae Sung, Lee Kang In, Bae Jun Ho, Hwang Hee Chan etc) will be benched.

So related to question of which combination of SHM, OHG, and CGS starts is do we go for 4-2-3-1 or 5-2-3. In practice, there’s very little difference because even in a 4-2-3-1, HMB really likes to have one DM drop in to the CB line. but there are major personnel shifts – an extra CB comes in, one of the four attackers drops out. Our attackers are our best asset, yet it seems like we’ve played our better games in a 3 ATB formation because the team feels more balanced and because Kim Min Jae becomes a little bit freer to do what he does best. I’m really not sure what the answer here is again, but what Hong Myung Bo decides to go for in these two games will be very interesting to watch. If I had to guess, assuming Jens is not healthy to start tomorrow, he’ll test out a 4-2-3-1 vs Ivory Coast and a 5-2-3 against Austria.

I’ve also given some thought as to whether we want Kim Min Jae as a sweeper as he was against the USA, or as a LCB pushing higher up and being that aggressive coming-off-the-line CB that he favors. If the latter, who goes center? I’d guess Lee Han Beom is the RCB and either Park Jin Seob or Cho Yu Min go sweeper, but again not sure what’s optimal.

How do we setup the central midfield?

In my opinion this is our biggest headache. Anyone who watches our games should be able to tell we will almost certainly go with 2 CMs in a 4-2-3-1 or 5-2-3, and it seems pretty clear Hwang In Beom is a lock to start, and HMB seems to favor a certain player as his direct replacement. But who plays alongside him? Could Jens do it? Could Park Jin Seob, recently playing more of a CM role than a DM/CB role for his new club in China, do it? Could Paik Seung Ho finally show some of his club form for country? Or will Kwon Hyeok Kyu be the DM we’ve always wanted? There’s so many question marks here that honestly I can’t predict what the CM lineup will look like when June comes around. My hunch is that either PSH or PJS would be favored, but this could change at any time, with form, with injuries, or with any other weird circumstances that gets thrown our way. Someone like Ki Sung Yong or perhaps prime Park Joo Ho would be really nice to have on the pitch right now.

Attacking midfield:

There are so many footballers who won’t be making the cut even though they probably do deserve to play for the KNT. The attacking midfield/winger space is by far the most crowded, and guys like Lee Dong Gyeong, Kim Min Su (doing well in the Segunda Division but probably not ready for a senior cap just yet), Yang Min Hyeok, Jeong Sang Bin, etc. weren’t called up this time and are in danger of not making it to the World Cup. In CB, Kim Ji Soo didn’t make the squad this round (he was to be fair injured until very recently), and the usual second choice LB in Lee Myung Jae is currently injured but might not even make the squad with the revelation of Jens Castrop as LWB. The final squad will be announced late May I believe and we will update the Tavern the moment it is up along with any tidbits from the subsequent press conference.

Can we perform against near peer opponents?

Ivory Coast and Austria seem to be good near-peer opponents for our March friendlies. I hate to be generalizing like this but I’d assume Austria is a rehearsal against Denmark or Czechia (Denmark looks really scary not gonna lie), while Ivory Coast is our rehearsal against Mexico and South Africa (a CAF team with solid players and fast skillful wingers, which at first glance seems like a major strength for both Mexico and SA). Meanwhile our neighbors have gone for full UEFA sparring partners in England and Scotland (in preparation for UEFA path B and the Netherlands). Wonder if the Netherlands or the winner of UEFA path B will try to schedule friendlies with us.

We’ve had some good victories recently against relatively near peer opponents, but some of those felt like we won through luck (Ghana comes to mind) and Brazil was an absolute disaster. So now would be a really nice time for HMB to get his act together. With only a few months and a handful of friendly games left, I don’t think any team will be seeing meaningful upgrades to their squads going forward; but we have some organizational issues that if fixed, can hopefully make a big difference before June.

UPDATE: we fall 4-0 to Ivory Coast – here are my immediate reactions: [I wrote this in maybe 10 minutes so please see updated post for a more thorough dive into what went wrong here]

In a major deja vu to Hong Myung Bo’s last time in charge before a World Cup where we lost 4-0 to Mexico in January then 4-0 to Ghana right before the World Cup in June, we registered an absolutely embarrassing defeat to Ivory Coast. Now Ivory Coast is a very strong team and a loss by itself is nothing to panic over, but this was bad. Really, really, really bad.

The lineup was admittedly a B team, but so was Ivory Coast’s lineup as well as Japan and Scotland’s (more on that later; it’s almost like there was a gentlemen’s agreement between most teams participating in this round of friendlies to experiment and try new things):

It was a 3 ATB after all with… Kim Tae Hyeon, Cho Yu Min, and Kim Min Jae as CB, Kim Moon Hwan RWB, Seol Young Woo LWB. Park Jin Seob and Kim Jin Gyu played in midfield, while the attacking trio was Hwang Hee Chan, Bae Jun Ho, and Oh Hyeon Gyu. Not our most confidence inspiring lineup, especially in CM, but Ivory Coast also played their B team and I expected some degree of cohesion in this team.

And at the beginning there was. We actually played really well the first 20 minutes. The gameplan seemed to be to overload the left side; in a rather representative sequence of our initial attack, Kim Tae Hyeon the LCB would push up, occupying the opposing RW; Hwang Hee Chan would drift inward, Seol Young Woo would push up the left flank, and Bae Jun Ho even come to the left wing to draw defenders. This particular sequence led to us hitting the post early on, and this combination seemed to work well. We also pressed pretty hard, almost Bayern Munich-esque. And at first it was effective.

That is, until the hydration break.

I didn’t know this until recently but this World Cup, every game is scheduled to have a hydration break halfway into each half. Ivory Coast changed things up after this hydration break. We did not. And boy oh boy did we get punished hard. As it turns out, all of our CBs outside of Kim Min Jae just get burned by opposing wingers. Cho Yu Min in particular – who I literally had been praising above because of his extra solid showings at least against AFC opposition – got absolutely skinned alive and arguably was singularly at fault for 2 of the goals. Our fullbacks being pushed so high up left our backline exposed; we pressed so hard but failed and left spaces wide open in the back; and even when we were actually in full defensive position our defenders were not up to the task. Even world class men like Kim Min Jae can’t cover for multiple attackers at once; and on numerous occasions we routinely found ourselves outnumbered on the counter.

This is so enraging because it’s the EXACT SAME THING that enraged fans so much in the recent loss to Brazil. Hong Myung Bo is straight up incapable of organizing a team or changing the game plan when something’s not working. Carlo Ancelotti even called Hong Myung Bo out on this, publicly, to reporters. I don’t know what it is; it surely can’t be lack of intellect, it surely can’t be blindness; is it stubbornness? Whatever it is, this man has no plan B. Nothing changes outside of subs. But what’s the use of subs if the system doesn’t change?

Even more enraging are the excuses this man makes to the press. He literally told the press we are not a top 10 team and that we need to recalibrate our expectations.

OK if we lost to France or Brazil fine but this was a total, 4-0, embarrassing defeat to a near peer opponent with a FIFA ranking of 36 to our 22nd for what it’s worth.

Then he was talking about how we hit the post three times, how we lost concentration after the water break, even blamed Cho Yu Min personally, and otherwise kept making excuses.

I’m sorry but is not what a manager does; not to mention that the issue wasn’t concentration but the fact that no one on the pitch knows what their role is, and that while the Ivorians huddled together at the water break and got instructions from their coach, according to Seol Young Woo “we just drank water.” It’s actually quite unbelievable how one dimensional we are despite years of Hong Myung Bo at the helm and how this man just continues to make excuse after excuse despite absolutely failing at every aspect of what a manager is suposed to do. HMB aside, what the hell are these Portuguese coaches and the staff even doing for us? And don’t blame the water break… it’s gonna be a feature at the World Cup, and literally any other manager who has a functioning brain have the insight to tweak some things. I really do not understand why we don’t.

And what makes this so unbelievably tragic is that we have all the components to at least be a decent team. Not top 10 by any means, and maybe not as good as our island rivals as they’ve had a well-rehearsed and well-planned system in place for decades now… but not this mind-bogglingly bad. We have all the tools we need, footballers wise, to be somewhere between solidly middle tier and perhaps even upper middle tier, but the management and the absolute shitshow that is the KFA is dragging us down into incompetence territory.

To be fair there are some personnel issues here too. Our CM line is way too thin; we have zero depth and I have even considered playing Lee Kang In in CM for this reason; if we have so many good options up top but so few options in CM, why not have Lee Kang In – Hwang In Beom play together in CM in a 3 ATB? He’s played deep lying playmaker for PSG before, and while he may be more effective up front.. why not try it? Kim Jin Kyu especially was painful to watch today. Park Jin Seob a little less so. The subs didn’t make much of a difference either and while Kwon Hyeok Kyu was left on the bench I really don’t know if he would’ve made a difference here.

Then there are the CBs. I’m not really sure why Kim Tae Hyeon started today, and Cho Yu Min proved that he just can’t cut it against higher level opposition. Maybe Kim Ji Soo deserves a callback?

It also wouldn’t be a Tavern post without pointing out how Japan somehow pulled miles ahead of us because their FA isn’t corrupt and incompetent. Their half B team (I do not even recognize some of their starting XI) soundly outplayed Scotland. I guarantee you we would’ve lost to Scotland playing like this.

So what do I want to see vs Austria? Honestly, nothing’s gonna change. Hong Myung Bo even 12 years later has shown 0 growth; he is still a stubborn man with zero flexibility who just doesn’t know how to manage a team effectively. The KFA will never find a good manager and even when they find one who sucks less than others they hate on him and drive him out (referring to Bento here… you guys got that right). I don’t even care who starts or who’s on the bench, I just want to see the absolute bare minimum now: some degree of cohesion and tactical stability. But decades of observing this stupid never-ending cycle have shown me that unless there is a 100% overhaul of personnel at the KFA, which will never end with the parasite CMG in charge, we will always be disappointed. At this point it might be more effective to just destroy the KFA and straight up copy the JFA? I don’t know.