Another World Cup, another game we HAVE to win. Well… at least this time we can afford a draw should we slip up but we really shouldn’t be even thinking about that considering this is the easiest group we’ve ever gotten in the World Cup, perhaps the easiest an AFC team has ever gotten.
South Africa:
As usual we begin with a brief preview on our opponents. South Africa looked very impressive in World Cup qualifying from their group in CAF, topping their group over Nigeria (as well as Benin, Lesotho, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe). What people are saying about them, and from what I can gather based on highlights, is that they are a bit unique in terms of style, at least for an African team. Their manager, Hugo Broos, is a 52 year old Belgian responsible for transforming this side into a team that at least tries to play a very modern, possession based game. In qualifying they had >60% of possession on average – this is not your sitting back and countering team. They like building out from the back and taking on wide defenders 1 on 1 especially out wide with fast and relatively more skillful fullbacks and wingers.
They also have some serious team chemistry – a lot of their starting XI members play for the same two clubs – Mamelodi Sundowns and Orlando Pirates (some might remember Mamelodi from the Club World Cup – Ulsan Hyundai lost to them). There’s certainly an advantage that comes from a national team having players predominantly playing for the same club team – Spain/Barca in 2010 and Germany/Bayern in most world cups come to mind. Admittedly, we haven’t seen this chemistry work out all that well for them yet, but it could be coming.
This is how they lined up vs Czechia:
Against Mexico they went for a 5-3-2 but unsurprisingly against Czechia they went for a slightly more attacking lineup and the one they seem to use most often. Against Mexico they did not look very good and the question was whether they have the correct personnel to even pull of their play style on the world stage – there were LOTS of pass misses and errors throughout the game.
But against Czechia they performed significantly better. Czechia pressed South Africa 1 v 1 but did NOT press their GK. You could repeatedly see Williams advancing higher up beyond the penalty box, positioning himself between the two CBs to help in buildup. He often sent long balls into space, either for their attackers to chase, or towards Appollis who drops deeper into space created by the CMs. It’s a bit reminiscent of what we did against Czechia. (As an aside I wonder if Czechia respected RSA just a bit too much – instead of pressing the GK in addition to the outfield players, they let them play their game… they respected a side weaker than them on paper too much perhaps, even though their starting XI was more attacking than the one against us with both Schick and Hlozek up top).
In attack, you could see them crowding the center. The idea seems to be placing fullbacks very far out wide and build up through the center, using essentially only their fullbacks as width and only the 2 CBs as cover:
A must win game
They’re going to come at us hard. South Africa pack their bags unless they win. They will go on the attack because they simply cannot afford to sit back and counter. They will probably play the way they usually do – maintain possession, pull us wide and out of position, take us on 1 v 1 out wide. Hence why I expect a 4-3-3 (what we saw against Czechia) more so than a 5-3-2 (what we saw against Mexico). I actually think this is better for us because we should be able to easily absorb their attacks and crucially, hit them on the counter. We struggle more against turtling teams than these kinds of teams. But what if they pull off a miracle and actually pull it off? To be seen.
Team news:
Key midfielder Teboho Mokoena will be out against us. He’s one of the better passers for the team and was MOTM against Czechia (he’s the one who took the penalty too) so this might be an important one. Sphephelo Sithole (3 syllables, not 2 as some of you might be thinking of) comes back from suspension after getting a red card vs Mexico. Themba Zwane was also red carded against Mexico but from what I can gather, not likely to start against us.
Key players:
Ronwen Williams – slightly odd to pick a GK but this guy plays a big role in their buildup as discussed earlier
Oswin Appollis – one of their best players. Most people probably only recognize Lyle Foster of Birmingham here but like Pavel Sulc from Czechia, Appollis (also a LW) is their playmaker / ace who cuts inwards or deeper to receive the ball and initiate the attack. It’s kind of reminiscent of Lee Kang In actually.
Teboho Mokoena – out for the game against us.
Other little threats:
- They have the edge in the climate this time – Monterrey is not Guadalajara. Guadalajara sits in a valley at a high altitude (1 mile above sea level), giving it a subtropical highland climate and a nickname of the “city of eternal spring.” Monterrey is much lower (around 500 meters) and gets caught in a bowl of mountains that traps both intense desert heat and Gulf moisture. Its significantly hotter and more humid. Historically, African and South/Central American teams have a slight edge in these conditions.
- An experienced manager – Broos has won the Belgian league with both Club Brugge and Anderlecht and even won the Afcon with Cameroon. Somehow we keep getting these older experienced managers this tournament..
The attack vs defense balance: what will Hong Myung Bo choose?
HMB has approached this World Cup extremely conservatively. I’m not saying that’s necessarily a bad thing, but we haven’t been going heavy in attack or taking risks. The biggest question for me going into this match is how we’ll approach the on-paper weakest team in the group. Will HMB chase goals and tilt the scales more forward? Or keep things as conservatively as we have, playing mostly defenders even at the expense of defense-minded fullbacks attacking the flanks.
Against a team like South Africa, there are two trains of thought:
- Option 1: we are a better team than South Africa, we will be the more attacking team, and our play should reflect that.
- Option 2: we CANNOT lose and must play more conservatively to neutralize South Africa’s wide attacking threat.
Let’s explore some ways we could make changes. According to HMB, changes will be made this game:
Jens, Lee Tae Seok, Seol Young Woo, Kim Moon Hwan, or Eom Ji Sung / Yang Hyun Jun? If the CF debate was starting to get complicated because we suddenly have a lot more options than before in Son, Oh, and Cho… the fullback debate I think is even more complicated. And I think this is the biggest talking point ahead of South Africa.
The most defensive pairing would be Seol Young Woo and Lee Tae Seok. Kim Moon Hwan is slightly more offensive and attack minded than Seol Young Woo but still mostly a defensive pick. Then there’s Jens who is a wingback / winger for club, not a defensive minded fullback. He does defend, but at Monchengladbach he is their focal point of attack at times; they also play 3/5 ATB, and have the other 4 defenders slide leftward so Jens can go up. On the attacking side of the spectrum, we have EJS and YHJ, two wingers who are fast and great at taking on defenders. Yang Hyun Jun actually plays RWB or RW for Celtic and was arguably one of our most in form for club footballers going into the world cup. Eom Ji Sung has not played LWB for Swansea to my recollection but has done very well off the bench in this position.
As we discussed in prior posts, the fullback getting the most attention is Jens Castrop because it seems illogical that a player of the month level Bundesliga LWB, the starting LWB for Borussia Monchengladbach (one of Germany’s better teams), is not playing. Lots of calls right now for Hong Myung Bo to actually utilize this gem of a player, one who switched allegiance over from Germany to represent us. Surely, he didn’t switch allegiance to Korea to just sit on the bench, right?
Well… the reality is a bit more complicated, and I’ll try to break down what Korean media is saying and my own thoughts.
The logic in the fullback position has been as follows:
- Against Czechia: to combat the prominence of Victor Coufal in how Czechia attacks, we needed Lee Tae Seok. HMB’s decision here worked great – LTS was excellent vs Coufal.
- Against Mexico: against a team that usually plays hyper-offensively, and was widely expected to play that way against us, we went for more defensive FBs again. As for why KMH over LTS, perhaps LTS was not in great condition and that’s why we went Seol and Kim Moon Hwan? Again, this largely worked because we did erase the few attacks Mexico attempted. Our plans had to change because around 30 minutes they started to sit back and defend, but anyway…
What will we do this time? I would personally go for Jens and Seol Young Woo. Yes we will need to be careful of RSA’s right winger and fullback but 1) we can very naturally transition into Lee Gi Hyeok LB, Kim Min Jae LCB, Lee Han Beom RCB, and Seol Young Woo RB – something that might make the footballers themselves happier anyway since all four of those guys play back 4 for club, and 2) we can afford it. South Africa’s forwards are a threat, but not quite the same level as Mexico’s. Jens + SYW is only one step more aggressive, and I believe we can afford it. Sure, Lee Jae Sung and Paik Seung Ho might need to be a bit more careful than usual in defensive positioning, but Jens is fantastic in attack and far better than any of our other 3 FBs in that aspect. When it comes to defending in a line and keeping formation/positioning, he is good but not AS good as LTS or SYW, and in terms of discipline he is CERTAINLY not as good (already got two red cards for Gladbach this past season).
In this case, the cards getting wiped at the RO32 works in our favor. To my knowledge, even though all cards are wiped before the RO32, if you accumulated two yellows as of game 3 you still serve the suspension at the RO32. So as long as Jens doesn’t see red, he can see yellows. It’s a slightly different story for Lee Kang In and Paik Seung Ho though – more on that thought later.
Son Heung Min LW? Cha Bum Keun suggested placing SHM on the left wing in an interview recently, as did Koo Ja Cheol on Shoot for Love (he was recommending we keep SHM on for 90′ and moving him out left for Oh Hyeon Gyu). It’s being discussed a lot in Korea right now.
Unless we decide to go 4 ATB for this game, I really don’t think this is a good idea.
In our current 3-4-3, the wide forwards are more like attacking midfielders. Our best games since playing 3-4-3 all came from Lee Jae Sung and Lee Kang In next to Son (the USA 2-0 win and the Czechia win really come to mind). The key is balance. Since the Bento days, Lee Jae Sung has been an untouchable starter because his workrate is what allows Son to do what he does best – operate up top without needing to defend like a LB. It also allows LKI to operate higher up and more freely as well, with LJS covering for the spot left behind by the LWB and helping to create a 3 man midfield.
When Son goes LW in our 3-4-3, he has to move deeper to receive the ball, nullifying his strengths. Let LJS and LKI take on that role. This is also why HHC is less effective as a LW in a 3-4-3 than in our prior 4-2-3-1 – he has to act more like an attacking mid, which he is not good at. I’d rather have him LWB. Same with SHM coming off from the bench against El Salvador – he was also operating deeper than usual, sometimes with Jens ahead of him. Reminiscent of the Ivan Perisic and Antonio Conte days at Tottenham right? When Koreans got really mad Son was defending and Perisic was attacking? Even on the KNT, one of our biggest gripes in the early Bento days and in the early to mid 2010s was that SHM was playing like a LB at times. And we certainly do not want to go back to those days.
If we want a SHM up top with other forward, the most logical choice for me would be a 4-4-2. Cho or Oh alongside SHM, LJS LKI on wings drifitng inwards.
A change in formation, perhaps? Probably not happening, but if there was ever a time to go less defensive and go more attacking, now’s the time.
Lee Jae Sung CM? I see this one floated around a lot by fans. If we drop LJS deeper, in CM, can’t we use our most in form attackers at the same time, with Son – Oh – Lee up top? HMB has thought about this and let’s just say it didn’t work. Against El Salvador he had Lee Jae Sung play CM alongside Hwang In Beom. They made uncharacteristic mistakes that game. Lee Jae Sung is an attacking mid, not a defensive or even central mid. He plays higher up for club and country. I would say the same for Lee Kang In as well – he could play deep lying CM as he occasionally does for PSG, but again that kind of nullfies his best talents.
HMB’s “2-3 changes”
HMB has explicitly said we will make 2-3 changes to the starting lineup. Let’s explore some candidates:
Fullbacks – almost certain to see a change.
Lee Kang In and Paik Seung Ho – not sure if it’s a great idea to rest these guys considering how important they are to the team, but they are sitting on yellow cards. We do not want to risk them getting a second yellow and being out for the RO32; especially so with Lee Kang In. I wonder if it’s better to just play them, ensure they’re careful on fouls, and sub them out early once we’re ahead. I trust HMB on this one.
CGS or OHG playing alongside SHM: discussed above. Knowing HMB I bet he won’t do this
Rounding out the rest of the squad, here are the unlikely changes:
- CB line: to my knowledge Kim Tae Hyeon still is not fully 100% match fit, and even if he was Lee Gi Hyeok has been excellent at filling in for a spot that saw injuries three consecutive times from Kim Ju Sung to Kim Tae Hyeon to Cho Yu Min. You could even count Kim Ji Soo in there as he unfortunately got injured in early 2026 and recovered in time but not enough to be fully match fit.
- CM: hwang in beom will play, end of story.
- GK: We love Cho Hyun Woo but against a team like RSA we are almost certain to go Kim Seung Gyu. KSG is by far the better choice in passing and buildup. CHW is definitely the better shot stopper though as we saw against Germany in 2018. I dont think we’ll be seeing a barrage of shots against us like we did against Germany though. If we ever meet a significantly stronger opponent in the knockout stages, I’d expect CHW to come back.
Official Tavern Prediction:
2-0 or 3-0. I would love a 4-0 or 5-0 to outdo Japan but HMB is quite conservative, and RSA have momentum going for them unlike Tunisia who were in absolute shambles. We have more than what it takes to win this one, and we’ve been playing quite well this tourney overall so I am not worried about a loss or a draw. If we play the way we’ve had, we will win.
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