As the excitement from the Czechia win winds down, we find ourselves focusing on second game vs Mexico. A bit ironic and cruel given how much camaraderie has been built between Koreans and Mexicans, but here we are, ahead of the match that could determine who tops the group. Let’s discuss how Mexico is a totally different opponent than Czechia, how they play very similarly to us, and also touch upon the criticism against SHM regarding all those missed chances vs Czechia.
Mexico team profile
We’ll keep this preview a bit brief, one because our prior preview went way too long and two because this is a team we’re very familiar with having faced them before the 2014 World Cup (4-0 loss), during the 2018 World Cup when we lost to them 2-1 (but our later win against Germany sent them to the RO16), in 2020 in Austria where we again lost 3-2, and last October in Nashville which ended 2-2.
Historically, the running joke was that as Korean football improved, we’d start to look more like Mexico. They have historically been the better team than us, making pretty much every RO16 since 1994 (only broken back in 2022 when they got knocked out) and both teams rely more on their technique, speed, and energy/work rate over physicality (the complete opposite of Czechia). I often hear foreign news outlets say we are agile, quick, mobile, or fluid, that we are adept at dragging defenders out of position. I could say the same for Mexico.
However, as of late our paths have diverged a bit and now in 2026 we FINALLY have a realistic opportunity of finally beating them for once. We are near our historical peak, while Mexico, despite being the hosts, are definitely not at their peak. They don’t look as threatening as they did in the past (at least just looking at their squad) but they are still looking like the strongest opponent in our group. Moreover, they will no doubt see a big home team advantage and have been preparing for their WC at home for over a month beforehand while suspending or postponing domestic league games, kind of like we did back in 2002.
In recent months/years, both teams have been playing a hyper offensive 3-4-3. We start out that way but Mexico’s starting XI at least on paper is a 4-1-4-1 or a 4-3-3:
They usually defend 5 ATB, either with Lira dropping between the CBs or Alvarado dropping down as a RWB.
And when they’re in attack (which is admittedly most of the time), it evolves more into this:
Seems familiar right? It’s very similar to what HMB does – a 3-2-5, where one of those 2 midfielders pushes higher up (in our case Hwang In Beom, in their case Alvaro Fidalgo of Real Betis). Just like what HMB has our players do, they press 1:1 with extreme intensity and very high up; which just like us, leaves a ton of space at the back. Just like us, a lot of their attacks start on the wings, and just like us they love to go through the half spaces vacated by the defenders marking wide players. I think you guys get the point. And funny enough their lineup mirroring ours creates what’s looking like a lot of 1 v 1 duels. Jiménez vs Kim Min Jae; Quiñones vs Lee Han Beom; Gutiérrez vs Lee Gi Hyeok, Gallardo vs Seol Young Woo, Alvarado vs Lee Tae Seok just to name a few.
What might make things very difficult for us though is the constant switching play between their attackers. Quiñones against South Africa was seen randomly on the right side after either Gutiérrez or Alvarado created space for him; Gutiérrez sometimes popped up on the left side after space was created for him. We will have to be very careful not to get pulled too out of position.
Another thing that could make things difficult for us is Érik Lira, their midfield lynchpin who seems particularly adept at long passes out to the wings. Slight problem for us because we have always struggled at organizing our defense when opponents quickly switch play from left to right, and hopefully we don’t get caught off guard by this.
Then we have Raúl Jiménez’s aerial ability. He scored an insane header against us in October (my God we can be so weak to aerial attacks) and scored with his head against South Africa from a simple cross. Seeing that goal made me think “that seems like the type of goal we would concede.” In general, Mexico is decent at set pieces too – not Czechia good, but still good, and a big weakness of ours.
Finally, the pressing itself. We were actually very good against Czechia, but they were tired, and Mexico’s pressing is on another level. Can our midfield cope with it? We’ll see if the Czechia result was more because we locked in individually and fine tuned a game plan, or if it was more because they tired out too quickly.
Players to watch: I think Czechia was a team that had a very simple system and several standout players; Mexico on the other hand doesn’t have too many big stars (I mean that in the most respectful way; we rely on big names, Czechia did too, Japan certainly doesn’t, Mexico doesn’t as much). My first pick for a section like this is Julián Quiñones who previously represented Colómbia at youth levels. Before the World Cup season came around, I had no idea who he was but I subsequently learned he was the Saudi League’s top scorer above Cristiano Ronaldo. While watching the Mexico vs South Africa game at the Westin Guadalajara, I repeatedly pointed out to my friends watching with me “see I told you he was the guy to watch” as he put in a MOTM shift vs South Africa. I could see our defenders having a hard time with him.
Mexico’s big weakness:
Tavern readers will get deja vu from hearing this, but like us they press super high up, and like us, they leave a ton of spaces in the back. It’s EXACTLY like how we’ve always criticized HMB for leaving too much space in the midfield (often leaving just 2 midfielders to cover a HUGE swath of space because the attackers are too high up). Watch their highlights against Serbia, they have this EXACT issue and conceded this way too. Against South Africa, they also repeatedly conceded counterattacks because of this. Even when they were 11 men vs 9, their centerbacks pushed so high up that they conceded a counterattack of 4 attackers to 3 defenders; it was this sequence that led to Montes’s (admittedly very soft) red card. Normally the vice-captain of Mexico, he was the captain of the opener vs South Africa due to the usual captain Edson Álvarez’s recovery from ankle surgery in February. Javier Aguirre has confirmed to the press that Álvarez will start at CB against us. From what I can gather online this could be a big advantage for us as reportedly he is not match fit and a bit error prone.
Anyway – when Mexico has the momentum and all the attack is going their way, they can be very strong; but there WILL be moments of mistakes that we can capitalize on. If in this hyper-offensive set up, if it works there’s a huge attacking advantage but if it doesn’t work then WE get a great counterattacking opportunity.
It’s because of this type of play style that LKI is going to be key for us (ok he always is but even more in this case). A team that presses so high up like Mexico WILL give us fantastic opportunities if we resist that press; we just so happen to have a player that resists the press 100% of the time and turns around to play killer through passes. He did it against the highly rated Wolverhampton CB Ladislav Krejčí, and he can definitely repeat the feat against Genoa’s Johan Vásquez. I picked Vásquez because I expect Álvarez to be the central CB (as he usually plays DM for club). I guess Mexico could double mark LKI but that also presents opportunities elsewhere. How Javier Aguirre deals with his former student will definitely be something to watch.
Also because of their high pressing I believe Son Heung Min is the best stylistic match for this game (compared to Oh or Cho). No one else times runs and breaks the line as well as or intelligently as SHM. No one exploits space like SHM. No one attracts attention and defenders like SHM; just his sheer presence forces someone to mark him, allowing us to stretch defenses as needed. He also presses the hardest and runs the fastest. Even if his scoring boots aren’t on these days; even though age is catching up to him so he can’t get his shot off that half a second quicker than a defender or a GK (now a lot of his shots get blocked as a result); even with all these handicaps, the class is still there.
Mexico’s second weakness: Ok there’s actually one more to discuss, and it’s their finishing. One thing I found funny about watching the match against Serbia was that 90% of the highlights were Mexico’s attacks, yet more than half the video was them missing their chances. Against South Africa they were definitely better but also missed a lot. Admittedly we clearly struggled to put away our chances too but if Son Heung Min was at his last season self, or any of his past 15 years selves, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. It was Son after all who put in that insane curling classic Son Heung Min goal in 2018.
Team schedule and elevation
There is no elevation advantage here as we had against Czechia. Mexico trained in Toluca, over 2600 meters in elevation, where they destroyed Serbia 5-1 (and where SHM’s LAFC lost 4-0). Then they came down to Mexico City’s Azteca, around 2200 meters, to play South Africa. Then Guadalajara 1500 m against us then Monterrey at 500 m. It’s a perfect setup for them, and these guys are better at elevation than us and probably have better stamina than us as well, so that strategy of long balls to empty space for SHM to attack will very much not work; it might be just detrimental.
Prediction:
I usually end with this but due to other topics I’ll put it higher up.
The first scenario (more likely I’d hope) is that the teams play as they usually do, which in this case means attacking hard. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4-5 goals this game, hopefully in our favor. The things that will decide the match will be who will resist the press better; who will get behind the defense; who will put away their chances; and who can have the stamina and the energy to keep marking their man. If HMB pulls this off, then he will truly shut up the critics including myself and stoke our hopes for a potentially historic run. If this turns into something more like Ivory Coast, it’ll prove that he still needs to fine tune things, and put a huge damper on our tournament hopes beyond the RO32. I want to think that we have the better squad, and the first two games gave me some validation that I’m right on this, but they have the home advantage, the much better head to head, and the far more experienced manager who might be able to outsmart HMB. I would predict a draw just because of how unpredictable and luck-determining these games can be.
The second option is an intriguing one and something I’ll post on separately, but there’s a lot talk rn about whether we want 1st place or 2nd place. 2nd place plays in LA; 1st place plays in Mexico City for both the RO32 and the RO16. The narrative would have it that we get second and they get first, even though I think we should play for first. What scared me about a possible “gentlemen’s agreement” on this game was Hwang In Beom’s comments to Lee Young Pyo after the game – he verbatim said “엘에이 가야죠” to which LYP replied LA would be great, but Mexico City wouldn’t be bad either (sorry I can’t find the video it was a random Instagram reel). Regardless of which city we end up in we are essentially getting a home crowd, there’s just a slight chance that the 2nd placed Group B team would be an easier opponent on paper than a lot of the possible third placed teams out there. But more on that later.
I guess in the end I’m still predicting a draw even with both scenarios so we’ll put that forward as the official Tavern prediction.
Son Heung Min’s missed chances and Oh Hyeon Gyu’s role
Lots of comments saying that Son should not be starting and that OHG needs to start over him. Considering how many shots he missed vs Czechia, I guess some of it is deserved, but let’s discuss this a bit further.
First let’s establish that playing both unfortunately isn’t great idea if we’re playing 3 ATB. Playing both OHG and SHM means you cut either Lee Jae Sung or Lee Kang In, which are kind of non-negotiable on this team. We tried playing both OHG and SHM together against El Salvador by putting Lee Jae Sung more deep in the CM but it did not work well at all.
Second, let’s establish how great it is that we have THREE very high level European-based forwards (ok Son isn’t but you know what I mean) who all play very differently stylistically. It’s a manager’s dream situation. Want to go for a physical #9 with long balls who can hold up play? Cho Gue Sung is your answer. Want to go for a (previously) world class speedster and counterattacker who can run past defenders and occasionally score the wondergoal? Son Heung Min. If you want someone who can do a bit of both and is extremely impactful as a sub when the opponents are worn down, you have Oh.
As mentioned earlier, I believe we need Son against a team like Mexico. Assuming we don’t start Cho Gue Sung because I don’t think he works well in this matchup, between Son and OHG we will have to start one and use the other in the second half. And in these roles Son is the better starter and Oh is the more effective sub rather than the other way around. Against a super high pressing super offensive team like Mexico, don’t we need a guy like Son anyway?
To credit, vs Czechia, despite missing all those shots leading us to get 1-0 down and having to fight back, he did help create the first goal by making space for HIB. He was also crucial for wearing them down with our OWN long balls and forcing errors as he pressed the CB chasing our long balls. Mexico won’t have the elevation weakness like Czechia, but Son being Son will still drag several defenders with him, wearing out multiple defenders for the price of one attackers, making Oh Hyeon Gyu even more effective in the second half.
Also, OHG is a fantastic asset for us and clearly our future starting #9 should current trends continue (we prefer mobile fast guys like Son or Oh over a traditional big #9 like Cho, but that could change at any time I guess). He is also doing SO well in Turkey as a starter. But historically, on the NT, he has done unbelievably well as a second half sub. All but 1 of his NT goals came as a sub. OHG brings a different style – somewhere in between SHM and CGS. Holding up the ball, running into space, running like crazy, while also using his physique so effectively. He gets in front of long balls, beats challenges and holds up play with his strength. He is also quite adept at getting in front of crosses with his body; goals like that 2-1 goal against Czechia are dime a dozen for this guy. His goal vs Mexico back in 10/2025 almost won us the game if it wasn’t for us conceding last minute:
Media protest
In a very rare case of the KFA doing something right, it seems they are responding quite forcefully to the JTBC hot mic incident we covered earlier. They put out a statement saying how regrettable this was, and for the sake of respect and to protect the players from further incidents like this, the national team and the KFA have decided to straight up boycott and cut ties with all Korean media.
At this point you’d be expecting a lot of player interviews ahead of a big game, but none of that is happening. The funny thing is that Mexican media is all over this story. They couldn’t’ fathom a Mexican journalist insulting Raúl Jiménez (and rightfully so, how insane is this story), and are joking that this might’ve all been intentional in order to hide all information from the opponent. I guess the world hasn’t quite figured out how toxic Korean media, Korean envy, and Korean culture, some of which stems from mandatory military service, can be!
It gets even more toxic though – not surprising to us, but perhaps surprising to any non-Koreans reading this. After the Czechia match Son essentially walked past the mixed zone (where the media camps out before the players leave the stadium) in protest of the incident. Guess what Korean media put out? Saying this was a little regrettable, saying that he might’ve behaved this way because he didn’t score and squandered chances, because he wasn’t happy with his performance. The gall, the shamelessness, the disrespect to write such headlines after a reporter openly cursed out Son? Ugh. Classic. We REALLY do not need to be dealing with so much dumb controversies in the middle of a World Cup right now… I hope that the players can lock in and carry forward the momentum from the Czechia match.
Another random story to end on a positive: the Mexican military is reportedly helping us out by jamming drones in the vicinity of our training.
Thank god you’re back writing instead of that Albert Kim guy. Talk about toxic and nothing but doom and gloom and just poor journalism skills.
Where have you been dude Jinseok has been responsible for 99% off articles since the last World Cup LOL but yes Albert Kim was so unbelievably annoying and still remains so on X, very happy the OG crew is back at the tavern! Dark times the early 2020s were