Back when we covered the World Cup group stage draw in December 2025, we expressed the opinion that this wouldn’t be an EASY group, but a very doable one. It’s an opportunity of historic proportions; the best group we’ve ever gotten; and one we should not squander. Back in December however, I did not appreciate just HOW lucky it was to be placed in Group A with 100% beatable opponents. Let’s review the reasons why it seems almost every possible tournament parameter is working in our favor, and as well as the various threats that could squander what is without a doubt our most ideal World Cup setup in history.
Elevation
We covered this one before (read this post for details). Having our first two games in Guadalajara then going DOWN in elevation to Monterrey for game 3 is a huge blessing. This gives us all the time we need to prepare for altitude. Imagine if we had the Monterrey game first THEN the games in Guadalajara? Or in the middle? We’d undo our elevation preparations. Not only did we get a good order of games, but we also avoided playing Mexico (or any other team) at the Azteca nearly 2600 meters high.
Elevation matters. See how T&T and El Salvador exhausted themselves super quick against us in Utah? And how Serbia exhausted themselves even faster in their friendly against Mexico at the Azteca? In yet another stroke of luck, the Czech team had to set up their base camp in Texas at sea level. They fly into Guadalajara just a day before our game on 6/10 (oh wait that’s today isn’t it? They flew in the same day as me – I just flew into Guadalajara myself and I already have a minor headache). Best case scenario for us, the Czech players exhaust themselves in the second half while we do not – just as Serbia, T&T, and El Salvador did. We MUST score first – that leaves them the chasing team, exhausting themselves faster. Worst case scenario for us, Czechia scores first and they can sit back, conserve energy, and counter (for the team that didn’t have time to adjust to altitude, this would be the dream).
Being in Group A with the hosts
Group A gives us major perks compared to other groups. Let’s start with the knockout stage opponents. First place in Group A gets a third placed team, while second place in Group A – which should get you a first placed team any other World Cup, and usually gets you a first placed team even in this expanded World Cup – gets the second place team from Group B – Canada BiH Qatar and Switzerland.
Then there’s the stadiums we can get in the RO32. If we get first, we play both the Round of 32 and the Round of 16 at the Azteca in Mexico City (if our opponents are not ready for the elevation, we have a huge advantage there) (it was probably seeded this way to let Mexico succeed if they get first). If we get second, we play in Los Angeles’s Sofi stadium – home turf for Son Heung Min in the city which I believe is the largest Korean population outside of Korea. It’s essentially going to be a home game, just like that USA vs Korea friendly I went to in 9/2025.
But wait there’s more! By being in Group A and kicking off our World Cup a whole 6 days earlier than the first games of Groups K and L, group A teams get more rest than any other team in the World Cup. 6/11, 6/18, and 6/24 means we essentially get a whole week of rest before each game – that’s not normal at a World Cup. If we get first place in the group, we get 6 days of rest before the RO32 on 6/30 (vs only 4 days of rest if we place 2nd on 6/28). The Group K and L teams, on the other hand, play three matches in 10 days – 6/17, 6/23, and 6/27, and they would get less rest than we do going into the RO32. For the top teams with lots of strong players and a solid B team, this is not an issue. For a team like us with less of a B team – this is fantastic. Admittedly, our squad depth has never been this good in our history, but all that extra rest still counts.
So in summary, by landing Group A, we not only got a really doable group with teams we are absolutely capable of beating, we also got the best group to be in for tournament progression, logistics, and rest purposes.
Travel distance and match timing
Traveling is exhausting. And even in this category, we lucked out – we travel so little compared to most other teams. While setting up base camp in Guadalajara we play two games in Guadalajara and one game in Monterrey. This means we only make one trip during the entire group stage. That’s … insanely good compared to what other teams have to do. Even the hosts don’t have it this good. Mexico has to go to three different stadiums (Azteca, Guadalajara, then Monterrey). USA has base camp in Irvine but plays in Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Japan has base camp in Nashville, but plays game 1 in Dallas Texas, game 2 in Monterrey (high altitude but not as high as Guadalajara), and game 3 back in Texas. So many teams fly across the giant continent that is North America. We literally make one round trip.
Additionally, all our games are at 7 pm or 8 pm – other teams have games throughout the morning or afternoon, while we have it consistent and in relatively cooler weather. There is a FIFA technical report out there, posted after the Club World Cup, where they concluded that African teams and South American teams fared better than expected in the hot, humid mid-day weather of North America while European teams had more difficulty adapting to the weather. These little things matter a lot.
Our rivals have it worse
Japan has a tougher group and a relatively more difficult tournament path. At first glance the vast majority of people would say Japan is competing with the Netherlands to top the group, but those who know anything about Asian football should know that the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia are the exact types of teams that Japan struggles against.
Their quality (let’s admit it, they’re better than us right now) will probably still get them enough points to advance if not compete for first, but Japan is a type of team that fares better against teams like Spain, France, Germany, Belgium, Brazil, or Portugal than against teams like the Netherlands, Sweden, Tunisia, Iceland, Iraq, Iran, Czechia, Denmark, Northern Ireland, or Australia. What’s the difference? The first group of teams dictate play, build up, and set their defense high up. Japan can upset these kinds of teams at any time because of their lightning fast and nearly telepathic counterattacks. That’s what standardizing football across all youth levels gets you – in Japan, every team from elementary to high school to the J League, from U15 to U23 level, plays EXACTLY the same way. They have the fundamentals down rock solid (first touch and passing); they build up well, they counterattack well.
Where Japan still struggles and has historically always struggled – even though their players have gotten much taller over the years – is facing any team that emphasizes physicality and power; any team that sits back and lobs long balls to tall target men. Dont’t believe me?
- Right before the 2022 World Cup: we beat Tunisia 4-0, Japan lost to Tunisia 3-0. Tunisia defends like crazy then throws a long ball forward in counterattacks.
- In the 2024 Asian Cup: Japan lost to Iran and Iraq because of long balls to big target men in Azmoun for Iran and Hussein for Iraq.
- In the 2018 World Cup quarters: Belgium tried playing the way they usually play (controlling possession, etc) but got behind 2-0. What did they do? Sub on Marouane Fellaini up top. Japan has no answer to a guy like that. All 3 goals they conceded involved headers and aerial balls in some way, either to start the attack or as the goal itself.
- 5/2026: Japan looked much better against Brazil and England than against Iceland.
- 2026 World Cup qualifiers: could not break down Australia.
There are many other examples I’m sure I can’t think of off the top of my head, but there you have it. Best of luck to our rivals in this difficult group, but hopefully we do better!
I haven’t even gotten to the tournament path yet. By being in group F, if Japan wins the group they face whoever gets second place between Brazil Morocco Scotland and Haiti. If they get second, they face the winner of that group. And while Japan could potentially upset Brazil, Brazil would probably try harder than they did in the friendly in Japan last year. Morocco would actually be a harder opponent for Japan. Ironically, it’s if they hit the RO16 they would be expected to have an easier time.
The threats: now let’s review the things that I would really like to see NOT derail such a great opportunity in front of us:
The KFA and the tactics: Despite a managerial shortlist including Herve Renard, Gus Poyet, David Wagner, Jesse Marsch, and Ruben Amorim – some of whom were interviewed and some of whom the higher ups at the KFA didn’t even know (Park Joo Ho famously came out to the press saying KFA people asked him “who is this Amorim guy”) – the job landed with Hong Myung Bo. It left national team fans unhappy because of a hiring process full of lies from the KFA. It definitely left Ulsan fans very unhappy as their star manager was yanked away from them mid-season. And now we are STILL tinkering with a starting XI and tactics literally 1 week before the World Cup (so much experimentation vs T&T and El Salvador and we still don’t really know what our best 11 looks like). HMB stated we have been fine tuning our tactics since then, but he has said that after every friendly so far leading up today. Hopefully, this time is for real, and we do not leave too much space behind the fullbacks, or lose the ball in our half, or see players taking on roles that they’re not good at. I really don’t want to see Son Heung Min defending and Lee Tae Seok attacking – let our players do what they’re good at doing and we can beat all three opponents!
Typical Korean fan toxicity: I don’t know if you guys heard of this story but on a JTBC stream during media day (all World Cup teams are required to allow media to film training for at least 15 minutes once before their first game), some guy was overheard insulting Son Heung Min for having not gone to the military. LITERALLY as he was jogging past and within earshot. A truly classless and unnecessary thing to say on live TV. Korean fans can be really toxic and perhaps we here at the Tavern start to slip into that quagmire a bit too as we (like all fans) moan and groan about the shortcomings of whoever our manager is and the massive corruption of the KFA, but something like this is REALLY not helpful and likely harmful to our players. We DO NOT need any more stupid media controversies like this.
Czech set pieces, Mexican home advantage, South African organization: finally, our opponents. I sound like a broken record in saying that we could beat all of these teams, but they are also thinking the same. There is a possibility that the elevation doesn’t tire out the Czechs, and we concede through counterattacks, throw ins, corners, or free kicks. Even though they say this Mexico team is not as scary as they used to be, they are still very dangerous having trained together for over a month now (they even instituted schedule changes for Liga MX to let this happen); they have an experienced manager who led Mexico in 2002 and 2010 and even brought out the best in Lee Kang In at Mallorca, not to mention the home team buff. And even though South Africa is considered the weakest team in the group, they also have a very experienced and trophy winning coach who set them up more like a possession based European team than a typical African team. Preview posts for Mexico and South Africa are coming, but these are quality teams we can’t underestimate.
very good writing and insight